Euro falls
Home ] Fokus ] Komentar ] Interest ] Arkib ] Maklumbalas ]  [Frame]

Euro may disintegrate
Dollar Rises
Euro falls
George Soros
Hedge Funds
Masalah Euro
Microsoft
US Slowdown
Overheating
Rescuing Euro


Last Update:
17 May, 2000

Euro falls to new low against the dollar
By Tony Barber in Frankfurt
Published: May 3 2000 17:59GMT | Last Updated: May 3 2000 21:29GMT

euro / dollar

The euro fell to a new low against the dollar and other currencies on Wednesday in spite of efforts by European leaders to persuade financial markets that the euro-zone economy is fundamentally strong.

After falling below $0.90 in European trading for the first time since its launch 16 months ago, the euro slipped to a low of $0.8895 soon after the start of the New York session.

With no obvious sign that the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve and other central banks are considering direct intervention to support the euro, analysts said the currency was in danger of falling further.

However, the German government and the European Commission expressed confidence that the euro would eventually recover its losses and counselled patience.

"We have waited between 40 or 50 years to have a single currency, which we still don't have physically," Romano Prodi, the Commission president, told a seminar in Bilbao. "Therefore we will give it time to strengthen and find its rightful place."

A spokesman for Gerhard Schröder, Germany's chancellor, said: "The strength and economic power of the euro nations will, in the short or long term, lead to a strengthening of the euro in comparison to the dollar."

The statements made clear that the euro's depreciation had not undermined the firm commitment of European governments to making a success of monetary union.

The euro, which has lost almost 25 per cent of its value against the dollar since January 1999, also touched new lows yesterday against sterling, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona.

Foreign exchange dealers said it was difficult to predict when the euro's fortunes might turn around because many investors still holding euros might seize on a rally as a chance to sell the currency and cut their losses.

The ECB says the currency's weakness partly reflects an exaggerated reaction to the US economy's superior performance relative to the euro-zone. It contends that the euro will recover later this year or early next year, when European officials say economic growth in the euro-zone will begin to match that of the US.

But some analysts said Wednesday's fall might have been connected with doubts expressed by the ECB about whether Greece had fully met the criteria for becoming the euro-zone's 12th member next January.

The European Commission said on Wednesday that Greece was ready to join. But analysts said the ECB's reservations had reminded financial markets that political factors were as important as economic ones in determining euro-zone membership.

Public faith in the euro, which will enter general circulation in January 2002, seems undiminished in the euro-zone's 11 nations in spite of the currency's weakness.

However, Jürgen Donges, chairman of German government's council of economic advisers, said last week that some Germans were losing confidence in the euro because it was less strong now than the old D-mark.

MAY 06, 11:50 EDT

Euro Becomes Early Embarrassment

By PAUL GEITNER
Associated Press Writer

 

BERLIN (AP) — Heralded at its champagne-soaked launch in Jan. 1, 1999 as a rival to the almighty dollar, the euro was supposed to help unify Europe's nations into a global economic force — a super-currency that would draw investors from around the world.

Instead, the euro has plunged on currency markets, shedding almost a quarter of its value since debuting. The embarrassing sell-off accelerated this past week, sparking government calls for calm among consumers nervous over the prospect of scrapping their marks, francs and lira for a single currency.

In some ways, the concern is premature: The euro is still just a bookkeeping tool for governments and businesses: it doesn't go into circulation until 2002. And the grand monetary experiment has already helped the economies of the 11 countries involved.

But the early setback clearly is humbling.

Warnings are heard about a ``crisis of confidence'' among those who will have to replace the money in their pockets. Die-hard euro opponents are renewing demands for the monetary union to be called off, while its key architects, like former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, remain conspicuously silent.

``Instead of dynamism for Europe, the euro has brought dynamite,'' said Wilhelm Hankel, one of four economics professors who went all the way to Germany's constitutional court in a futile attempt to stop the euro in 1998, saying a single currency violated German sovereignty.

Intended to reflect Europe's burgeoning strength and unity, the euro's weakness has highlighted disagreements in ``Euroland'' about who to blame and what should be done, if anything, to reverse the slide.

After the euro dipped below 90 cents to the dollar for the first time last week, the German government said it viewed the situation with ``great calmness'' and believed no action was required. But a day later, French Premier Lionel Jospin suggested ``a collective response'' by the European Union, the United States and Japan ``should be considered'' to restore confidence in the euro.

EU finance ministers plan to tackle the euro's problems at their regular monthly meeting on Monday.

Eleven out of 15 EU countries have adopted the euro: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Britain, Denmark and Sweden opted out.

Greece, which initially didn't have its fiscal house in order, got the OK from EU officials this past week to join the pack.

The invitation has to be confirmed by European leaders at their summit in June. But some analysts said the prospect of Greece, notorious for undisciplined finances in the past, coupled with the recent government turmoil in Rome, may have helped push the euro down in recent days.

Others, perplexed by the euro's dive, say economic fundamentals in the zone overall are rosy.

Inflation is still comfortably low at roughly 2 percent. Growth is catching up to the United States, with unemployment sinking for the first time in years. Corporate mergers are picking up pace and taxes are coming down.

``The long-term trends are very, very good,'' said Josef Joffe, co-publisher of Germany's respected Die Zeit newspaper.

Indeed, he added that much of the credit actually goes to the euro, which has created a huge domestic market for European producers similar to that U.S. companies enjoy. The underlying currencies have been fixed to the euro since its launch, insulating the businesses keeping their books in euros from currency swings and creating a broad new market for euro-denominated stocks and bonds.

Yet currency traders are instead looking to the United States, where dollar investors currently enjoy higher interest rates and a rocketing stock market.

The negative impact of the currency's dive is already hitting consumers.

Europeans could end up feeling shortchanged when traveling abroad, since they'll have to pay more for dollars when exchanging currencies. And prices of imports may rise in Europe, since it takes more euros to buy products from abroad.

European Central Bank president Wim Duisenberg took the unusual step Friday of issuing a special statement not to currency traders, but to consumers worried that the weak euro would drive up prices in the stores and eat away at their savings and pensions.

But the lanky Dutch banker doesn't yet command the same respect as those who shepherded the rock-hard Deutsche mark over the past 50 years.

Germany, which accounts for a third of Europe's economic might, under Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder also hasn't been showing the kind of leadership that Kohl did in promoting the euro and explaining its benefits to a skeptical population, said Angelika Volle, executive editor of Internationale Politik, the quarterly journal of the German Council on Foreign Relations.

``This euro thing has never ever been an economic project, it's always been a political project,'' she said. ``We need political action.''

Back Home Next